The globalised trading network that grew up with the rise of China and the collapse of the Soviet Empire has massively changed where food and other goods are produced in relation to their markets. However, the fragility of this network was brought home during the Covid-19 pandemic and its aftershocks. For my business two packages shipped in March 2020 were stuck in airports and customs facilities for months causing a loss of major customers. Similarly, sudden changes in politics such as Brexit and the invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctioning of criminal gangs led to major disruptions to fresh food trade in UK and the Black Sea trade in grains to Africa and the Middle East. These political driven disruptions will be overcome but a more fundamental long term threat is disruption to food supply due to climate change.
In 2023 there have been major storms and floods that have damaged the transport infrastructure in numerous places. Countries around the world have seen major floods with smashed bridges, washed out roads and huge damage to croplands in China, Greece, Libya, Slovenia to name a few (www.floodlist.com) . Climate change is bringing more intense rainstorms driven by a more dynamic atmospheric hydrological cycle. These lead to flash floods particularly in urban areas where water cannot be absorbed by non-porous surfaces. The world’s most productive land is often situated in riverine and coastal littorals that are at greater risk than ever of flooding.
The disruption to fresh food supply is particularly a risk as the products are perishable and need to be delivered within a minimum few days of harvest via a cold chain network. A disruption of a few days is a serious matter and thus it will become more important to develop short supply chains to reduce the risk of disruption. This is a strong argument for local peri-urban horticulture.